2018 Q1 Report: 10 Quarterbacks Evaluated

With week 4 on the books, it is  time to apply this site’s methods and assign Fantasy Value Points (FVP) to ten leading quarterbacks through the first quarter (Q1) of the fantasy season.

We apply our familiar methods to four quarterbacks with high fantasy point totals through week 4, and six quarterbacks who were highly rated before the season started.

The results illustrate some key features of the FVP formula: in order to have high FVP totals, it is not enough for a QB to just score a lot of fantasy points; it can important to do it in weeks when projections have the QB highly-ranked, and it helps to have been highly ranked before the season started. The lower your weekly projection, the more likely you are to be on the bench where your fantasy production doesn’t matter, and the lower your pre-season ranking, the more likely your fantasy team is to have a higher-projected QB on its roster.

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Fantasy Value: Russell Wilson vs. Cam Newton

In this article, we continue to look at the 2017 values of the top players in the singleton positions – quarterback and tight end – by looking at the fantasy values of the number one and two highest scoring quarterbacks of 2017: Russell Wilson and Cam Newton.

Top 5 Fantasy QBs of 2017

1. Russell Wilson
2. Cam Newton
3. Tom Brady
4. Alex Smith
5. Carson Wentz

— 360°FantasyFootball (@360FFB) January 2, 2018

Fantasy Value Points

I described my concept of fantasy value in the article Fantasy Value as Measured in Points, Featuring a Deshaun Watson Case Study To recap the approach that I am taking: I am reviewing past fantasy value, not stating their present value or making future predictions. Inspired by Pete Palmer and John Thorn’s The Hidden Game of Baseball, I am looking to take express the number of fantasy points that a player contributed to his fantasy team, which I am going to start calling Fantasy Value Points (FVP). We measure this by taking the sum, through Week 16, of the player’s differential contribution in games in which he should be started, where differential contribution is the difference between the number of the fantasy points the player scores in a given week, and the number of fantasy points scored by the next best starting option on his fantasy team. In this way, measure the value to the fantasy team of having the player on the roster, as opposed to having to rely on the next best player.