Real Points and Pointless Points

Points scored by fantasy starters while they are benched by their fantasy team do not help their fantasy team. This truism, while obvious, does not  play much of a role in fantasy analysis. This article introduces a new stat, Real Points. A player’s real points are simply the  total of fantasy points scored in games in which the player was a projected starter.

It is obvious that some players’ total point production is identical to, or at least not far off from, their point production when starting – because those players are never benched when active. Other players may have wasted a significant portion of their production because they were widely benched in their most productive weeks. Think Keelan Cole, who scored 132.8 fantasy points in 2017 without earning many starts, or, as discussed on this website, Alex Smith in 2017, whose lack of fantasy value in 2017 was largely attributable to ranking below the top 12 QBs in his most productive weeks.

Continue reading “Real Points and Pointless Points”

My Guillotine League Strategy: Bid Low, Bid Late

It is my first season of playing in a guillotine league, the new fantasy football concept popularized by (and maybe invented by?) Paul Charchian. My strategy can be summed up as Bid Low, Bid Late. I will explain what I mean in the remainder of this post. Since I have never done this before, I don’t know if it is a good strategy or a winning strategy. Win or lose, I expect to write regularly at The Fantasy Value Project about my team and what I am learning about guillotine league strategy , so check in regularly or sign up to the e-mail list to stay apprised.

About Guillotine Leagues

The idea is of guillotine leagues is simple: You start with 17 teams.  Each week, the lowest-scoring team gets guillotined, meaning it is eliminated from the league and all of its players are dropped to waivers. So in Week 2, there are 16 teams left, in Week 3 there are 15, and so on, until in Week 16 only 2 teams are left, and they play for the championship, and usually, the entire pot of money. When a guillotined team’s players are dropped, the other teams can bid on them using a FAAB budget.

Continue reading “My Guillotine League Strategy: Bid Low, Bid Late”

2018 Q1 Report: 10 Quarterbacks Evaluated

With week 4 on the books, it is  time to apply this site’s methods and assign Fantasy Value Points (FVP) to ten leading quarterbacks through the first quarter (Q1) of the fantasy season.

We apply our familiar methods to four quarterbacks with high fantasy point totals through week 4, and six quarterbacks who were highly rated before the season started.

The results illustrate some key features of the FVP formula: in order to have high FVP totals, it is not enough for a QB to just score a lot of fantasy points; it can important to do it in weeks when projections have the QB highly-ranked, and it helps to have been highly ranked before the season started. The lower your weekly projection, the more likely you are to be on the bench where your fantasy production doesn’t matter, and the lower your pre-season ranking, the more likely your fantasy team is to have a higher-projected QB on its roster.

Continue reading “2018 Q1 Report: 10 Quarterbacks Evaluated”

Using Game Theory to Determine Fantasy Value

With this post, we start looking at player fantasy value in a different way.

Up to now, we have been looking at player fantasy value by looking at actual player performances, and comparing their fantasy points with those of their notional replacements.

Starting today, we consider a different approach as well. We will ask: if fantasy teams had a budget of fantasy points, which they had to bid to acquire players, how many fantasy points ought a team to spend for a player with a given production profile?

This is admittedly far removed from the everyday fantasy evaluations that fantasy owners do. But if this blog’s theme is correct, and the ideal way to evaluate fantasy players is in fantasy points, then this approach forms the basis for proper player evaluation. We have to start with the abstract and hypothetical in order to see the principles that can later be used for real world player evaluation, once the techniques have been developed.

Continue reading “Using Game Theory to Determine Fantasy Value”

Alexander Smith and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Fantasy Season (Plus Five Other Quarterbacks Evaluated)

Alex Smith was second only to Russell Wilson in fantasy points during the fantasy-relevant portion of the 2017 season, but his fantasy value was practically zero. Matt Ryan’s value was substantially less than zero. I’ll explain what I mean in this article, which also looks at four other quarterbacks’ 2017 seasons.

I have already written about the fantasy value of the top two fantasy QBs of 2017, meaning the two who scored the most fantasy points over the season: Russell Wilson and Cam Newton. As described in that article, I measure a player’s fantasy value in Fantasy Value Points (FVP) in order to understand what factors impact a player’s fantasy value. FVP represents the sum, on weeks in which the player is a projected fantasy starter, of the average fantasy point differences between the player and members of a comparison set representing likely next best options.

Today we look at six more of 2017’s top quarterbacks. Four of them were top quarterbacks in the sense of being drafted high: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Drew Brees. The other two, Alex Smith and Carson Wentz, were not top-drafted quarterbacks but are top quarterbacks because they had very successful seasons.

Continue reading “Alexander Smith and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Fantasy Season (Plus Five Other Quarterbacks Evaluated)”